COVID and Crime in Los Angeles in Commercial Areas
We are beginning to understand quite a bit about the impact of COVID on crime in 2020, though there remain important questions. As part of a larger work on both the spatial and temporal dynamics of COVID, I'm looking here at time and trend within commercial areas. Specifically, I'm comparing areas zoned "Commercial" or "Industrial," using STL Decomposition, and my particular interest here is in the difference in trends compared to previous years within the red bars (the highest restriction level - over 65). 1 The trend difference here is pretty stark, as are the absolute numbers (observed) though it's interesting to note that the increase in the trend of robbery started prior to the harshest lockdown policies and continues beyond them. This is in keeping with the fact that some policies had already been put in place (both in the commercial and public sectors), so the effects of people staying at home may have already been at play as early as January o...